There is an old rule that economists follow: In making a forecast, give a number or a date—but not both. It is a rule that executives in the autindustry ignore with surprising frequency. In instances involving Volvand Tesla TSLA -1.82% , twcompanies whose names are seldom spoken in the same breath, the lack of caution in setting future sales targets may cause them more trouble than a mere fender bender.经济学家一般来说不会遵从一条老规矩：做到预测时，要么给个数字，要么给个日期，但无法两个都给。但汽车业的高管们却常常忽视这条法则。就以沃尔沃（Volvo）和特斯拉（Tesla）为事例，这两家公司的名字很少不会被拿出来相提并论，但是他们在设置未来的销售目标时都缺少慎重，这也许不会给他们带给大麻烦。

After years of drift, VolvCars is trying trebuild its product line under its Chinese owners Geely Motors. Nlonger content tbe solely identified as a maker of boxy station wagons, Volvhas set its sights on becoming a full-fledged luxury manufacturer—on the same level as the industry’s top producers.经过多年的浮浮沉沉，沃尔沃被新东家中国吉利汽车（Geely Motors）并购后，正在新的建构产品线。沃尔沃想再行被指出只是一家旅行车制造商，而是侧重沦为一个货真价实的豪华车厂家，与其他顶级豪车品牌平起平坐。

Its goals are ambitious, aggressive, and yes, audacious. Leading the effort treach them is CEHakan Samuelsson, whcame tVolvfrom Munich-based truck maker MAN in 2009. In an interview with Automotive News, Samuelsson set unexpectedly steep targets for Volvo’s recovery. Among the highlights:它的目标雄心勃勃，保守，甚至可以说道大胆。现任CEO哈肯o萨缪尔森于2009年从慕尼黑卡车生产企业MAN公司跳槽至沃尔沃，在近日拒绝接受《汽车新闻》（Automotive News）专访时，萨缪尔森车祸地给沃尔沃的衰退设置了十分大胆的目标，其中还包括：A return tannual U.S. sales of 100,000 plus by 2016;到2016年，使沃尔沃在美国市场的年销量完全恢复到10万台以上；Arrival in the “elite pantheon of global luxury brands” in three tfour years;3至4年内，转入“全球豪车品牌的精英梯队”；Achievement of 800,000 in global sales in 2020.到2020年，全球销量超过80万台。Developing a true luxury brand that commands a premium price on the strength of its name can’t be done overnight, as Volvshould know. When he was running Lincoln, Jim Farley, whnow heads Ford Europe, used testimate that 15 t20 years would be required televate Lincoln intthe ranks of luxury players. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, the only three authentic members of the group (excluding exotics like Ferrari and smaller makers like Jaguar) have been at it for decades and have earned their pedigrees with achievements in racing as well as in engineering and technology. Even Lexus doesn’t qualify for this elite grouping because of its weak standing outside the U.S and its lack of any racing credentials.研发一款确实能售出高价的豪车品牌并非一夜之功，沃尔沃应当确切这个道理。

现任福特公司（Ford）欧洲负责人的吉姆o法利在之前运营林肯品牌时曾多次预测道，要让林肯挤身奢华品牌之佩，有可能必须15至20年的时间。远比法拉利（Farrari）等超跑品牌和捷豹（Jaguar）等小型厂商，目前市场上确实却是奢华品牌的只有飞驰（Mercedes-Benz）、宝马（BMW）和奥迪（Audi），他们早已雄据豪车市场几十年了，而且是靠工艺、科技，甚至是赛车领域的全面成就才有了今天的优势。连雷克萨斯（Lexus）都算不上是高端市场的“第一梯队”，因为它在美国以外市场的美誉度较强，而且它在赛车领域缺少建树。

Getting tthe top tier requires a financial commitment that Volvhasn’t made. Cadillac has invested billions of dollars in new models since 2000 in a bid tregain its luxury standing and still has more tdo; it is now developing a V-8 powered flagship sedan for 2016. Volvo’s flagship is the 2015 XC90 sport utility, which is powered by a far-less imposing inline four-cylinder engine.要想要转入“第一梯队”，必须在财政上作出大量投资，而沃尔沃目前还没展开这样的投资。自从2000年以来，凯迪拉克（Cadillac）早已投资数十亿美元以挽回其奢华品牌的地位，目前依然有很多工作要做到。现在，凯迪拉克正在为2016年研发一款V8引擎的旗舰车型。

沃尔沃目前的旗舰车型是2015款XC90 SUV，配备的是魅力大得多的四缸发动机。Volvhasn’t made its quixotic quest any easier with its recent performance. While it claims a long list of safety firsts—three-point seatbelts, rear-facing child seats, air bags—Volvcars have always been positioned as sub- luxury or “entry luxe”, marketed tbody of devoted fans whfavor practicality over prestige and performance. Volvwas neglected during its years of ownership by Ford (1999-2010), as its product cycles stretched out longer and longer and other makers caught up on the safety front. 2007, and sfar this year its sales have reached only 47,823 (vs. 52, 112 for the same period in 2013).同时，沃尔沃最近的展现出也不令人寄予厚望它的唐吉诃德式目标。虽然沃尔沃标榜它享有一长串安全性创意，比如三点式安全带、向后儿童座椅和各种气囊，但沃尔沃的车型还是常常被定位为“次奢华”或是“入门级豪车”，射击的往往是那些更加侧重实用性而不是声誉和性能的消费者。在老东家福特旗下时（1999至2010年），它的产品周期纳得更加宽，同时其他厂商也在安全性上追上了上来，沃尔沃渐渐被市场忽略了。

今年至今为止，它的销量只有47,823辆（去年同期有52,112辆）。Samuelsson is pinning his hopes on the belief that Volvo’s squeaky-clean reputation, which served it swell in the past, will resonate with a new generation of buyers. “If you look at what is happening in society, our brand promise is in line with developments,” he said in the interview. “People want tshow that they are taking responsibility for safety and taking responsibility for the environment. I think in the future that will more and more be a premium value.”沃尔沃向来以“极为环保”闻名，这种声誉曾多次让该公司获益良多。

这次萨缪尔森也对这种声誉寄予厚望，期望它能引发新一代消费者的回响。他在专访中回应：“如果你留意社会目前的发展动向，你就不会找到我们的品牌允诺与这种态势是完全一致的。

人们想展出他们正在对安全性和环境负责管理。我指出在未来，这将为沃尔沃品牌加添一种溢价。”But Samuelsson overlooks changes in the market that will squeeze Volvfrom both the bottom and the top. The German Three have been rolling out more and more new models, many at price points that used tbe considered entry-luxe. Buyers shopping for a European brand can now choose between, say, Mercedes three-pointed star and Volvo’s ring and arrow emblem (a symbol for iron in Sweden but representing male sexuality in the U.S). That’s a tough comparison for Volvo.但是萨缪尔森忽略了市场正在再次发生的变化，这种变化正在强弱两端给沃尔沃导致断裂。

首先，“德系三巨头”仍然在发售新车型，其中不少车型的价格都是过去所谓“入门级豪车”的价格。打个比方，现在想要出售欧系车的消费者可以从飞驰和沃尔沃之间选一款。那么他是不会中选飞驰的“三角星”，还是沃尔沃的圆环特箭头呢（沃尔沃的LOGO造型在瑞典是铁的象征物，但在美国则代表着男性象征物）？对于沃尔沃来说，这是一个艰苦的较为。

At the same time, volume brands like Toyota and Hyundai have been steadily adding upgraded features and entertainment, safety, and performance options that used tonly be available on luxury models. That leaves very little space in the middle for brands like Acura, Infiniti, Lincoln – or Volvo. ” “Volvo’s goals aren’t completely unattainable but even if Volvo’s decisions are perfect, the competitive landscape is extremely challenging tthrive and grow in,” says Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at Edmunds.com., the car-shopping web site.与此同时，像丰田（Toyota）、现代（Hyundai）等平价品牌也在逐步加到高端功能、娱乐设施、安全性配备和动力自由选择。这样一来，留下歌颂（Acura）、英菲尼迪（Infiniti）、林肯（Lincoln）或沃尔沃等中端品牌的空间早已较小了。汽车出售网站Edmunds.com的高级分析师杰西卡o卡德维尔认为：“沃尔沃的目标并不是几乎不有可能超过，但是即便沃尔沃的决策很极致，在如此白热化的竞争环境下，要想要衰退和快速增长还是极具挑战性的。”Tesla finds itself in a different, if not equally difficult, dilemma. Worries are growing that there is a large novelty element attached tthe appeal of his $80,000 battery-powered car that will be difficult treplicate as its sales volumes grow. Consumer Reports added fuel tthe worries when it reported that the company has about 2,300 remaining 2014 Model S cars, including showroom display cars, which the company is selling at a discount.特斯拉则陷于另一个某种程度棘手的困境中。

首先是有人担忧随着销量的快速增长，这款价值8万美元的电动跑车所带给的新奇感将渐渐上升。其次是《消费者报告》（Consumer Reports）称之为，特斯拉目前还有约2300台没卖出的2014款Model S（还包括展车）正在折扣销售。

One Seeking Alpha blogger figures that more than half of Tesla buyers are what he describes as essentially opportunistic. The Model S became an unexpected addition ttheir fleet of cars, and if it hadn’t been available, they wouldn’t have bought another luxury sedan of any description. “In subsequent years,” he reasons, “there will be lower numbers of purchasers deliberately modifying their normal purchase behaviors in order tget a Model S.”一位博主在金融网车站Seeking Alpha上认为，出售特斯拉的人中有一半以上可以被称作“机会型购买者”。出售Model S是人们在名下早已享有的汽车之外的额外消费，如果没特斯拉，他们也会转而出售任何一款豪车。

他说明道：“在未来几年，特地调整自己的长时间出售不道德来购入Model S的人将变低。”For Musk treach his outsize targets, he will have taccomplish three things that he hasn’t tried before.要想要构建他的宏伟目标，埃隆o马斯克必需要已完成三件他以前不曾尝试过的事情。

He will have tdevelop a robust distribution system that can offer test drives, provide service, and handle trade-ins. State franchise laws are currently limiting Tesla tthe establishment of showrooms that are capable of displaying cars but dlittle else.他必需创建一个强有力的经销网络，以便获取试驾和售后服务、处置二手车交易。各州目前的授权经营法律使得特斯拉不能成立一些展厅，除了展出轿车以外，这些展厅完全做不了其他什么事情。

He will have tscale up his production capacity at a rate that the autindustry has never seen before. Musk wants tdouble output by the end of 2015 and make five times as many cars by 2020.他必需以汽车业前所未有的速度提升生产能力。马斯克期望特斯拉的生产能力到2015年末翻一番，到2020年快速增长5倍。

He will have tsuccessfully launch his third all-new product, the more affordable Gen III, and make it profitably for less than half of what the Model S sells for. New models are demanding. He’s already delayed the introduction of his second car, the Model X, several times, and now it isn’t due until 2015’s third quarter.他必需顺利地发售第三款全新产品，也就是价格更为亲民的Gen III，并且要在将近Model S一半的价格上使它盈利。新车型要想要顺利是很难的，马斯克早已数次延期了第二款车型Model X的公布，现在它有可能要等到2015年第三季度才能月上市。Musk’s Tesla and Geely’s Volvare twvastly different companies with attached narratives that bear little resemblance teach other. But at this point in time, they find themselves in the same predicament: Living up tdates and numbers that give new meaning tthe term “stretch targets.”马斯克的特斯拉和吉利的沃尔沃是两家十分有所不同的公司，彼此很少有相似之处。

但是这一次，他们陷于了完全相同的窘境：要在原作的时间里已完成预计的销量，构建他们的“远大目标”。

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